This week we would like to take you with us to France, where a very important event has taken place: the elections. After the second round of the French legislative elections, the country finds itself without an absolute majority in Parliament. Here is a summary of the results and the possible future scenarios:
Emmanuel Macron: He has neither clearly won nor clearly lost. His decision to dissolve the Assemblée nationale drew criticism, but it prevented the continued erosion of his government by the Rassemblement National. He will now have to face a difficult form of demi-cohabitation with the Républicains and part of the left.
Gabriel Attal: He has maintained an open stance towards a coalition of the “republican camp” and avoided the mistakes made by other Macron allies, securing a strong position for the future.
Marine Le Pen: Clearly the loser. Her victory in the European elections did not translate into success in the legislative vote. She made several strategic mistakes and the party continues to recall the legacy of the old Front National. Her political moment may be coming to an end.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: He seeks to present the outcome as a victory, but in reality he has lost influence within the coalition and failed to secure support as a candidate for prime minister. His rigidity has alienated several allies.
Marine Tondelier: A rising figure on the French left, she has adopted a pragmatic approach and blocked Mélenchon’s ambitions, contributing to the creation of the Nouveau Front National.
Several scenarios are now possible:
- a minority left-wing government, with the New Popular Front attempting to govern while seeking occasional support from other parties to avoid votes of no confidence;
- a Macron-led coalition, which could try to form an alliance with moderate forces on both the left and right, although many party leaders have already spoken out against this option;
- and finally, a technical government, in which Macron could appoint a technocratic cabinet with non-political ministers to manage day-to-day affairs, although this solution is widely seen as impractical.
The situation remains uncertain, with the first session of the National Assembly scheduled for 18 July.
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